Steve Smith will lead the hosts at Optus Stadium in Cummins’ absence.
Cummins had said earlier this month that he was “less than likely” to feature in Perth after being diagnosed with a lumbar stress problem in September.
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The 32-year-old has not played since the third Test in the West Indies in July.
Australia head coach Andrew McDonald says the seamer has now “run out of time” to be considered for the Ashes opener but is “hopeful” he will be able to return for the day-night second Test in Brisbane from December 4.
McDonald said: “We flagged a week or so ago that it would take four-plus weeks to get him up and running and we’ve run out of time, unfortunately.
“But we are really optimistic and hopeful for the second Test match. He’ll be back bowling this week and that’s a huge step. We’ll see how he pulls up and then we’ll make decisions moving forward.
“We’re on the journey to that second Test and very hopeful that that will be a positive outcome. When he does come back, what an injection that will be to the group.”
Boland likely to step in for Cummins in pace attack
Scott Boland is Cummins’ most likely replacement for the Perth Test, with the 36-year-old poised to join stalwarts Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc in the pace attack.
Boland averages 12.63 in Australia with his 49 wickets in nine matches including innings figures of 6-7 from four overs when the Baggy Greens hammered England in Melbourne in December 2021 to secure an Ashes retention.
The seamer bagged a hat-trick during the 3-0 sweep in the West Indies earlier this year, while he claimed a five-wicket haul – and eight wickets in the match – in his last outing, for Victoria against New South Wales in the Sheffield Shield.
McDonald said: “Losing your captain’s not ideal, but when you talk about Scott Boland being the potential replacement, it’s not a bad position to be in.”
Other pace-bowling options for Australia include Michael Neser, Sean Abbott and Brendan Doggett, who, like Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood and Boland, are all 30-plus.
Boland’s Victoria team-mate Fergus O’Neil, 24, may be another contender, with the New Zealand-born quick taking 21 wickets in four matches at an average of 17.90 for Nottinghamshire during the early stages of the 2025 County Championship season.
O’Neill took a five-for for Victoria against New South Wales this month.
Smith to lead in Cummins’ absence
Smith is a more than able deputy for Cummins and has stood in for him in six Tests since 2021, with his five victories in that time including the second Ashes Test in Adelaide in 2021 when Cummins was absent due to Covid-19 protocols.
The 36-year-old captained Australia to a 4-0 Ashes victory at home to England in 2017/18 and only lost that job in the wake of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa in 2018.
McDonald said: “Ideally we want the captain available for stability and decision-making but…Steve Smith will slide into that position.”
Ashes series in Australia 2025-26
All times UK and Ireland
- First Test: Friday November 21-Tuesday November 25 (2.30am) – Optus Stadium, Perth
- Second Test (day/night): Thursday December 4-Monday December 8 (4.30am) – The Gabba, Brisbane
- Third Test: Wednesday December 17-Sunday December 21 (12am) – Adelaide Oval
- Fourth Test: Thursday December 25-Monday December 29 (11.30pm) – Melbourne Cricket Ground
- Fifth Test: Sunday January 4-Thursday January 8 (11.30pm) – Sydney Cricket Ground
