“We feel like we can win every game,” said Morgan Rogers after they beat Manchester United, a team once considered Villa’s bogey side – winning five out of the last six meetings and drawing one – even in their period of instability.
So winning was a memorable result for Villa, and it could set up a memorable season. But now it feels like crunch time for Unai Emery’s side.
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While they are on a fantastic run of form, the next two games could decide how special this season is. Chelsea away, Arsenal away – within the space of three days. Both games live on Sky Sports, and both put Villa under the microscope.
These two matches are more than just tough fixtures at a so-called ‘Big Six’ side – that term is being put to the sword by Villa anyway.
But these are tough games at a time when Villa’s away performances haven’t always matched the results. Emery’s side have fallen behind in each of their last five away Premier League matches – needing comebacks to win the last three.
They will now go to two teams who may be less forgiving in another slow Villa start. Chelsea’s best performances this season have come against the better sides – the five points taken off Barcelona and Arsenal in quick succession come to mind.
And then comes the test of Mikel Arteta’s Gunners three days later, who have won their last nine games at the Emirates Stadium.
Only four players have managed to score at Arsenal’s home across 12 matches in all competitions so far, so if Villa start slowly again – they may not get a chance to strike back against the league’s best defence.
All this adds to the theme that while form from Emery’s side has been immaculate recently in terms of results, their actual performances require more scrutiny. It can be asked that while Villa have won a lot recently, have they played particularly well?
In Villa’s last 10 Premier League games, of which they have won nine, Emery’s side have only won the Expected Goals battle in one of them – and that came against bottom club Wolves. That is if you round each team’s xG tally up or down.
What helps Villa in that regard is wastefulness from their opponents at one end of the pitch – but also an ability to overachieve their own Expected Goals tally at the other.
It helps when you have a player like Rogers in your team. “I never actually thought that they played well at any point in the match, compared to how they ordinarily would play,” said Sky Sports’ Gary Neville after Sunday’s win over Man Utd.
“But when you’ve got a special player who’s in form, who can score goals of the quality that he did, then you’ve always got a chance.”
Villa’s last three Premier League goals have come from Rogers – the three goals had a combined xG value of 0.1. It is not far-fetched to say the England international’s expert shooting has bailed Villa out in the last few weeks.
There is ultimately the age-old question of: what is the sign of champions? Is it playing badly but still winning? Or does there need to be more of a sustainable way forward?
Being three points behind the Premier League leaders makes Villa a title contender, especially with the trip to the Emirates coming up, and Villa having more than matched Arsenal when the sides met in Birmingham a few weeks ago.
There is no doubt about where they are now, but whether they are playing the required football to keep up with the pace is still up for debate.
Watch Aston Villa’s next two matches away at Chelsea and Arsenal live on Sky Sports over the festive period.
Villa visit Chelsea on December 27, kick-off 5.30pm – before visiting league leaders Arsenal on December 30, kick-off 8.15pm…
